IAGblog Podcasts

India's commercial aviation chaos

AirInsight — Tue, 22 Nov 2011 13:25:30 GMT

India has the world's fastest growing air travel sector - yes faster than the Gulf. Year on year growth was 17%. Imagine that in the EU or North America? The airlines would be doing back flips of joy. But in India you have near total financial chaos. Air India is a political plaything that has no business being a business. Keeping it afloat is hurting the other airlines; Jet and Kingfisher are hurting - the latter badly. There is one shining star in IndiGo. The Bangalore Aviation team explain the impact of political support for Air India and the punitive state fuel taxes are making the industry nonviable in the long run. The squandered opportunity is a shame.

Even more taxes?

AirInsight — Wed, 19 Oct 2011 15:07:27 GMT

Yes its true. The Obama Administration’s proposed tripling of the passenger security tax is on the table. Will Congress go along? After all there is a real need to cut the deficit. As one can imagine this new tax is not going over well - the ATA is reacting by speaking to one and all. As ATA VP Communications Steve Lott explains, ATA is busy with an education process. He shares some simple numbers that are very interesting. Many would be surprised to find out how much of an airline ticket is taxation. And it is going to get worse. Government has learned over the years that they can keep taxing air travel and it keeps growing. But the airlines are truly burdened at this stage and consumers are running into sticker shock. Although flights are at record load factors, airlines are producing awful returns on capital. Which means the industry is ever more a risky bet for the financial industry. Without an industry business model that provides a reasonable rate of return there will be a smaller tax base to exploit.The tax base is huge - from the aerospace industry through to the tourism industry. It is a tax base to nurture not needle. Public policy cannot assume that air travel has an inelastic demand curve, because it does not. The airline industry has laid off thousands of people - and it shows on every trip you take. The industry employees are exhausted and ill tempered. Which is not great for an service industry. If you would like to join ATA in its education mission, visit http://www.stopairtaxnow.com/.

How come the lessors and valuation firms are warming to NEO and MAX?

AirInsight — Tue, 18 Oct 2011 20:27:37 GMT

Our conversation with Gueric Dechavanne (VP at Collateral Verifications) covers the views from leasing firms and valuation firms of the next generation of single-aisle airplanes. As the re-engine programs have gained momentum, we hear much less about current fleet values. Gueric explains how he sees this change - and discusses long term values. We cover a lot of the issues and dwell some on the 757.

Podcast - India Update

AirInsight — Mon, 10 Oct 2011 14:13:55 GMT

Another of our growing programs on the vibrant Indian aviation scene. Today we discuss tough times at Kingfisher - especially the Red mess with implications for the ATR fleet. We also discuss a polar opposite - success at IndiGo, rising profits and its international expansion plans. Finally we look at SpiceJet's success looking inwards using Q400s to great effect. DNQ254X3FZPJ

9/11 - Looking back in an analytical way

AirInsight — Mon, 03 Oct 2011 19:25:26 GMT

Teal Group's Richard Aboulafia took an unusual way of looking back at 9/11. Richard describes how the impact of 9/11 has played out. His view is that the sad day did not create the long term impact one might have expected. Yes, it was a horrible day. But looking back, the damage to the economy and aviation industry was not as bad as many expected.

The Star Megado

AirInsight — Thu, 22 Sep 2011 20:22:36 GMT

If you're a very frequent flyer this story is for you. Ed Pizzarello is co-founder of Star Megado and runs a site called Milepoint.com. Go to the site and sign up as you listen to how much fun a travel geek can have.

India Review

AirInsight — Thu, 22 Sep 2011 13:18:33 GMT

The second in our now monthly review of Indian and other sub-continent aviation news with Bangalore Aviation. We talk about Air India and the 787, Kingfisher's financial pressure and Spicejet's brand new Q-400.

Podcast - Hello MAX

AirInsight — Wed, 31 Aug 2011 19:01:02 GMT

Yesterday Boeing unveiled the 737 MAX - a name that is likely to be the name it bears among industry analysts and airline people alike. Getting to yesterday was a long and sometime tortuous road. After debating for years it seems, and being pushed by Airbus’ neo decision, MAX was born rather quickly in the end. Discussing this with us is Scott Hamilton and Jon Ostrower. The remind us of the many steps it took to see MAX for the first time. Of course MAX is not done yet, there may be some more changes but these are expected to be subtle.

Qantas results and plans

AirInsight — Wed, 24 Aug 2011 12:54:45 GMT

We spoke with CAPA's Will Horton today about the Qantas results which were announced today. They were pretty good and although these were as guidance had indicated, it was great to see the company come though a pretty nasty period and make a profit. We go on to discuss Jetstar Japan, the as yet unnamed Asian-based premium airline and end off talking about Tiger and the restarting of that airline.

Podcast - The Acrimony of AF447

AirInsight — Fri, 12 Aug 2011 15:24:51 GMT

David Kaminski-Morrow, Air Transport Editor at FlightGlobal, published two interesting stories on the AF447 aftermath which now is best described as acrimonious phase. Now its pilots and airline vs. Airbus. On a visit to Airbus last year we were told the company felt that, regardless of what the investigation found out, Airbus was compelled to pay for the continued search for the black boxes. They felt they simply have to know what happened - if there is something to fix, they need to know what it is. The black boxes were found, data recovered and analyzed. Here we are now, as David explains, we know what happened. But why did it happen?

Podcast - An ASEAN update

AirInsight — Wed, 10 Aug 2011 18:41:15 GMT

We had a 19 minute call with the team at Bangalore Aviation talking about the news of MAS and Air Asia doing their share swap (not great news for travelers used to low fares), then we went on to discuss the Star Alliance's dissing on India (and Air India). Finally we spoke a bit about the 787 which should soon be flying ASEAN skies.

Podcast - Potential Issues with Biofuels and Aviation

AirInsight — Mon, 01 Aug 2011 21:08:51 GMT

Everyone in commercial aviation (and increasingly non-commercial as well) is wondering how they can implement biofuels to be cleaner and cut fuel costs. Well it's not that simple. It turns out there are trade offs no matter what you look at. Dr Veronika Persinova is a consultant with Creelman & Associates in Los Angeles, and explains some of the challenges facing the industry and its biofuel dreams.

Podcast - American's Order - A Contrarian View

AirInsight — Fri, 29 Jul 2011 15:38:46 GMT

The reaction to American's recent fleet order was not positive from the financial analyst community. They have valid concerns regarding the firm's financials. But in typical fashion, MIT Researcher Bill Swelbar decided to take contrarian view and look at the order from a positive viewpoint. He provides his take on his blog. Take a look at the comments section below for more insight on the order. Bill understands where the financial analysts are coming from but thinks one should take a longer view and see the positive side of the order and its potential for helping the airline improve its operating costs rather quickly as the new planes arrive.

India's Airline Market

AirInsight — Tue, 26 Jul 2011 08:31:38 GMT

India may have a vibrant economy but the airline sector is as hampered as any by the Indian State. Guests Devesh Agarwal from BangaloreAviation.com and Vinay Bhaskara from The Gate on Flyertalk.com discuss the state of the Indian airline industry. Despite India being the home of world class entrepreneurs the state is no source of help. Yet these people keep pushing and building.

Reviewing the American Airlines Order

AirInsight — Fri, 22 Jul 2011 18:44:33 GMT

A three way call with Ken Herbert from Wedbush Securirites, Jon Ostrower from Flight Global and Michel Merluzeau at G2Solutions. The consensus was surprising - we did not select these people because of their similar views, yet that is how it turned out.

Podcast - The PW4000 - headed for 60+ years of operation

AirInsight — Fri, 22 Jul 2011 13:28:47 GMT

Pratt & Whitney has been around the aviation business since 1925. There are not any firms in the aero engine business with a history this long. We spoke with Mr Larry Jones,Product Line VP for the PW4000 this morning. This engine follows a long line of PW aero engines. It dates back to 1987, but is based on the earlier JT9. Although the engine is clearly mature now, it will be the engine to power the USAF next Boeing tankers for the next 40 years. That means this engine will be flying for 60+ years. As much as this is eye opening for most people, Mr Jones points out the company's TF33 on the Boeing B-52 could be 80 years old when it stops flying.

Podcast - Flying Classic Pistons

AirInsight — Tue, 12 Jul 2011 20:23:13 GMT

At the Paris Airshow we got to walk inside and look around the magnificent Lockheed Super Constellation. It was simply the most gorgeous airplane at the show - and may be one of the most beautiful ever built. Showing us around the plane was Carlos Gomez, who is otherwise the President of Florida Air Transport. Mr Gomez knows his piston planes. Take a listen as he talks about running a business in the 21st century based on aircraft that are 50 years old.

Podcast on AF447 - a pilot reacts to the initial BEA information

AirInsight — Fri, 27 May 2011 20:11:16 GMT

A qualified A330 type rating instructor talks about what he sees in the initial BEA information. The call asks some uncomfortable questions. The system of airline training needs to take another look but also there is work for Airbus pertaining to pitot tubes. It would seem there was a systemic failure on many levels.

Podcast - Of moving maps, tourism and IFE

AirInsight — Wed, 11 May 2011 17:56:14 GMT

When you fly, and your seat has access to a seat back screen, we bet you visit the moving map at least once per hour. Many people simply tune out of the awful movies and reruns of TV sitcoms to just watch the moving maps between doing whatever else they can, like dozing or listening to music. So how clever of a firm to turn that moving map into something really useful - entertaining, educational and informative. Take a look at Mondowindow.com to get an idea of what we mean. These guys are on to something really neat. The opportunity for organizations in the travel industry are real and easy to exploit.

The IAM 751, Boeing and NLRB

AirInsight — Thu, 05 May 2011 16:54:52 GMT

IAM 751 filed a complaint against Boeing over the second 787 line in South Carolina. The impact of the NLRB decision is potentially huge. But listening to IAM 751 president Tom Wroblewski you can hear a desire to move forward to replicate the good and productive efforts which both Boeing and IAM harnessed to succeed with the Air Fore Tanker. The truth is both organizations do so much better together. Its a global competition and internal discord serves neither party.

Podcast - Airline vs GDS' - the escalation

AirInsight — Fri, 22 Apr 2011 16:36:57 GMT

Yesterday US Airways joined the fray, so we now have two airlines fighting with the GDS. American is no longer alone and its Don Quixote-like battle with the GDS' now seems much more plausible. Indeed, we expect to see other airlines step forward in the fight to cut distribution costs and technology hegemony. At least that is how the airlines view this battle. To help us understand the state of play and what the key issues are, we spoke with Travel Technology Update's Editor Michele McDonald.

ViaSat and their Ka plans

AirInsight — Mon, 11 Apr 2011 23:36:23 GMT

We had a visit with VaSat in Carlsbad California today. We spoke with Bill Sullivan, Director of Strategy and Business Development (Mobile Broadband) and Don Buchman, Director Mobile Broadband Systems. Besides discussing the Ka technical offering, we also spoke about geographical coverage, the two airlines rolling out this service and a number of other intriguing aspects of in-flight connectivity. As a leader in the field, ViaSat has a great story to tell. Imagine the cost of in-flight connectivity dropping to price of a can of soda? That works for any consumer and for sure for any airline - even the cheap ones. But most of all, with so much bandwidth airlines can seriously start to exploit connectivity for internal use. As ViaSat explains they have a large footprint of GA customers who demonstrate that once bandwidth exists it gets exploited. So roll on Ka!

Pratt & Whitney's Bob Saia about new engine programs

AirInsight — Thu, 07 Apr 2011 17:42:10 GMT

Scott Hamilton's second part of his discussion with Pratt & Whitney's Bob Saia. They discuss the new engines coming out as well as new airplane programs. We have an interesting view of open rotors - an open rotor needs more than double the diameter of a regular fan engine. Interestingly, Airbus will be getting a more advanced version of the GTF to enable the increased thrust required. But they will maintain fuel efficiency at the same levels though. Looking ahead, a new Boeing in circa 2020 could see new blades, and other aerodynamics and lighter materials as an engine option.

Pratt & Whitney's Bob Saia about the PurePower Engine

AirInsight — Thu, 07 Apr 2011 17:47:22 GMT

Scott Hamilton speaks with Pratt & Whitney's Bob Saia about the PurePower (AKA GTF). They talk about scalability, engine variants, materials, MRO/costs, and he mentions the Goodrich nacelle technologies. This lat item is something not often discussed. Then they talk about a new engine for the A350. P&W has not seen any limit to the GTF thrust up to 100k thrust. We know Airbus is interested, now we know P&W is also thinking along the same lines. Then they get into noise - or the reduction the GTF achieves. At last we get an idea of what the noise reduction means in English rather than dB and stages.

The WTO and Boeing - A Rejoinder From Boeing

AirInsight — Thu, 31 Mar 2011 21:15:29 GMT

Earlier today we heard from Airbus America's Chairman about the WTO ruling announced today. Now we have the perspective of that same ruling from the other side. Boeing spokesman Tim Neale provides their perspective of the WTO situation. Interestingly both voices seem to be looking at a future where the rules are indisputable and no longer argued over. Whereas the EU and USA might be closer to this, it is not so clear that other aerospace nations are on the same page. So even if the appeals to the WTO's two rulings are completed in two years, this fight may see more skirmishes.

The WTO and Boeing

AirInsight — Thu, 31 Mar 2011 17:28:44 GMT

Today the WTO released its findings on subsidies enjoyed by Boeing - a response to the WTO's earlier findings about subsidies enjoyed by Airbus. The numbers are huge - bottom line according to Airbus, based on WTO data of sales campaigns is $45bn. That is what Airbus says it lost in sales. Airbus Americas' Chairman Allan McArtor spent 10 minutes with us talking about the release today and does not hold back from from cutting comments.

Podcast - Boeing steps up its role with biofuels via the Roundtable on Sustainable Biofuels

AirInsight — Wed, 23 Mar 2011 18:32:58 GMT

We reached Boeing's Director of Sustainable Biofuel Strategy, Darrin Morgan, in Europe today to get his take on the emergence of the this new group. Industry followers have noted that biofuels are a hot new area of research. The commercial aviation sector has to develop something to reduce risk of fuel supplies and the volatility in pricing.

Podcast - The Romanian Camelina Value Chain

AirInsight — Mon, 21 Mar 2011 17:58:26 GMT

Airbus and TAROM Romanian Air Transport together with a consortium of key stakeholders have established one of Europe’s first project aiming to establish a sustainable bio-kerosene jet-fuel processing and production capability. The Romanian based project aims to provide a bio-fuel made from the Carmelina plant, as a renewable, sustainable substitute to fossil based jet fuel. Paul Nash, Airbus Head of New Energies explains Airbus' role with this project, the future of biofuels and what we can expect as travelers. He mentions a timeline of 2020 for a horizon for blends making any serious impact on airline fuel use. But he concurs that if the current fuel price spike remains this horizon might be pushed closer as airlines demand a solution.

ISTAT- Keynote from FAA Administrator Randy Babbitt

AirInsight — Mon, 14 Mar 2011 17:37:14 GMT

At the 2011 ISTAT conference in Scottsdale, Arizona we heard from the FAA on the actions the agency in busy with to improve the US commercial aviation sector - from next gen nav through biofuels.

ILFC is back!

AirInsight — Tue, 08 Mar 2011 20:10:15 GMT

With two big orders ILFC is back in the hunt. The orders were for 33 737-800s and then 100 A320neo family aircraft. The NEO order is especially eye popping - 60 of these planes will be P&W powered. This provides a huge boost to that company's GTF program. Joining in this discussion is AirInsight's Scott Hamilton.

Podcast - Bombardier's Risk Mitigation on CSeries Supply Chain

AirInsight — Fri, 04 Mar 2011 20:35:12 GMT

If there is one thing the aerospace industry has learned over the past few years it is the scary things that come with outsourcing. On the one hand, everyone wants to save money and drive costs lower. But as we have seen, in the short term trying to save money can be like fool's gold. This is a very expensive and complex industry. For a company like Bombardier, it took the first steps to global outsourcing twenty years ago. Eric Martel, SVP Commercial Aircraft at Bombardier explains what lessons they learned over the years. He also explains why they are comfortable with the CSeries project meeting its milestones. The company has a LOT of its people based in China and even more Shenyang people in Canada working on the project. A smaller team is at Alenia - but the project management is very tight. The program is moving to parts manufacturing on schedule. Bombardier's people sound more confident every time we speak with them.

Podcast - Tanker War is Over

AirInsight — Fri, 04 Mar 2011 19:00:37 GMT

The news is that EADS will not protest the Pentagon's selection of Boeing. In a conference call that overall was a class act, EADS officials laid out what they know from the debrief and concluded there is no basis for a protest. Talking about this news we have Scott Hamilton and G2 Solutions' Michel Merluzeau. We review the news and where EADS goes next. The conclusion is that EADS took a hit here and may have to do a rethink of how it gets to achieve its goal within the US market.

Boeing wins tanker - for now

AirInsight — Thu, 24 Feb 2011 23:14:55 GMT

The latest round in a decade long procurement came to a close today when the Pentagon announced that Boeing has won. Well this round at least. Richard Aboulafia from Teal Group thinks that even if EADS does not want to protest, its allies will force them to do it. Which is to say the saga is headed for more delays.

FAA Forecast Conference

AirInsight — Wed, 16 Feb 2011 17:54:58 GMT

This morning we got to speak with MIT's Bill Swelbar after he gave his presentation to the conference. Provocative as always, you may disagree with Bill, but he will make you think. We talk about the changes over the past 30 years - the most critical he cites is an apparent move away from market share to profitability. But looking forward, with limited airports and the fact that ~200 airports account for 97% of traffic, you can expect unpleasant choices coming. Throw in the fact that the FAA sees traffic doubling over the next 30 years. We talk about how airlines might respond to this.

IFEC and Business Models - What Works Best?

AirInsight — Fri, 11 Feb 2011 00:37:31 GMT

In-Flight broadband connectivity is normal in the US these days. On Lufthansa it will soon will be for long haul flights. In-flight connectivity of the non-broadband variety exists on other airlines. Other airlines, like Norwegian, are getting ready to add broadband service. But airlines have struggled with business models - how to recover the costs and build some ancillary revenue. Airlines have become ever more dependent on ancillary revenue as they unbundle services. Passengers dislike the fees intensely. But whenever in-flight Internet access is sponsored usage jumps. Mary Kirby (of Runwaygirl fame) and industry veteran Bob Mann discuss the business models and share thoughts on how they see the process evolving.

NASA's UHB aeroengine research

AirInsight — Mon, 31 Jan 2011 21:11:41 GMT

NASA has a research lab at Lewis Field in Cleveland Ohio where they are doing research into ultra high bypass engines for aircraft. We had a conversation with the UHB Research program Manager, Chris Hughes. He explains what the program is doing and which technologies they are evaluating. Coming up for repeated mention are two engine approaches, unducted fans and geared fans. Of these two, the geared approach is much closer to reality - even though UDF engines were around years ago being tested.

Podcast - Lufthansa's EVP Corporate Fleet discusses NEO, CS, LEAP-X and GTF

AirInsight — Thu, 27 Jan 2011 18:23:29 GMT

Lufthansa's EVP Corporate Fleet is Nico Buchholz and he is based in Frankfurt. Herr Buchholz is a very important man in the airline business; he and his team buy planes for Lufthansa, Swiss, Brussels, Austrian and BMI. So he is on many OEM speed dial lists. He and his team make fleet decisions that reverberate and often act as guidance for other airlines. We got to spend some 20 minutes with him talking about NEO, CSeries, GTF and LEAP-X.

Read an excellent related article on CS here from FlightGlobal.

Virgin America and the Airbus NEO - Straight from the CEO

AirInsight — Fri, 21 Jan 2011 22:52:46 GMT

Virgin America made big news this week becoming the launch customer of Airbus' new NEO. Airbus was thrilled and a few observers and financial analysts grumbled the news was bad for Bombardier. David Cush, Virgin America's CEO, explains that the CSeries was not a particularly serious competitor. The airline is far more focused on maintaining fleet commonality. So perhaps this was not really a Bombardier "loss" at all. But then we got to talk about engines and this was very interesting. Take a listen.

Podcast - Understanding American Airlines' fight with GDS'

AirInsight — Fri, 21 Jan 2011 19:44:47 GMT

This fight is hard for most people to understand - even for many within the industry. Michele McDonald, Editor of Travel Technology Update explains the back-story is and how closing the huge differences are necessary for both American, the airline industry and the GDS'.

Podcast - Meet Anne Millbrooke

AirInsight — Fri, 21 Jan 2011 19:29:35 GMT

Anne Millbrooke is an aviation historian. We have a quick conversation which provides a wonderful perspective on some aviation history. Although this is less then 20 minutes, we certainly want to speak with Anne some more.

Podcast - Applying a Fatigue Model to prevent crashes

AirInsight — Thu, 20 Jan 2011 21:28:08 GMT

Fatigue is the bane of many industries - from trucking to airlines. A study has just been published by the Sleep and Performance Research Center at WSU, Spokane. Describing the findings is Dr Gregory Belenky who explains what they discovered and what ideas they have to assist firms where employees work hours that could lead to operating when Circadian rhythms are low.

Podcast - Big Fleet Moves

AirInsight — Fri, 14 Jan 2011 18:34:11 GMT

The news this week that India's IndiGo had singed an MOU for 180 A320s was a great opening shot for aircraft orders in 2011. This was followed yesterday with news that Delta Air Lines has an RFP out for between 100-200 single aisle planes and up to 200 options. Delta is looking at replacing three airplanes; the DC9-50s, A320s and 757-200s. Together this represents at least 270 aircraft. The impact of such an order is clearly little short of massive to the OEMs who have been waiting for the replacement orders to come from the legacy US carriers. Gueric Dechavanne of Collateral Verifications shares his thoughts on what the Delta order means for the OEMs.

Guy Norris on GTF

AirInsight — Mon, 10 Jan 2011 23:31:57 GMT

Guy Norris from Aviation Week recently went to visit P&W's Florida test facility. There he got to see and hear the new GTF engine. His thoughts are most encouraging. He notes the quiet confidence among the PW team and of particular interest is what he picked from NASA.

China's new fighter

AirInsight — Wed, 05 Jan 2011 23:26:45 GMT

Over the past few days there has been a flurry of images and news coming out of China about a new fighter. Steven Trimble of FlightGlobal shares his thoughts on the news, the look of the airplane and the impact this news might have on China's neighbors and even the USAF. Steven is not alone in being surprised the project has come about so quickly. There has been rumor and speculation about a Chinese "stealth" fighter for a long time. Well it seems to be here; perhaps a few years early. This will not make things easier for any planned arms race slowdown.

Aboulafia on CSeries

AirInsight — Wed, 05 Jan 2011 18:50:48 GMT

Richard Aboulafia was an early critic of the CSeries program when it launched. But with an updated program Richard seems to feel there is more promise now. He still sees issues that make the project risky - but then again, we have seen every new aircraft project uncover issues.